फंडामेंटल एनालिसिस

Fundamental Analysis की Basis

Fundamental Analysis का core belief: markets long-term में fundamentals को reflect करते हैं, even if short-term में deviations होती हैं। Forex के लिए fundamentals include: (1) Economic data - GDP, CPI, employment, retail sales। (2) Central bank policy - interest rates, QE/QT, statements। (3) Political stability - elections, policy changes। (4) Trade balance - exports/imports। (5) Current account। (6) Geopolitical events - wars, sanctions, crises। (7) Commodity prices (commodity currencies के लिए)। (8) Sentiment indicators।

Technical vs Fundamental Analysis

दो schools of thought: (1) Technical Analysis - charts, price patterns, indicators। "History repeats itself"। (2) Fundamental Analysis - economic underlying। "Markets reflect value eventually"। दोनों के pros/cons हैं: Technical short-term precise है लेकिन fundamentals को miss कर सकती है। Fundamental long-term directions identify करती है लेकिन timing difficult है। Modern traders अक्सर hybrid approach use करते हैं - fundamentals से direction, technicals से timing। कहावत: "Fundamentals decide what to trade, technicals decide when"।

Fundamental Analysis भारतीय context में

USD/INR fundamentals track करना: (1) Fed policy - US rates, FOMC statements। (2) RBI policy - MPC decisions, repo rate, CRR। (3) US economic data - NFP, CPI, PCE, GDP। (4) India economic data - CPI, GDP, IIP, trade balance। (5) Oil prices (India's largest import)। (6) FPI flows (equity और debt)। (7) Current account deficit। (8) USD Index (DXY)। (9) Geopolitics। Long-term USD/INR rising trend fundamentals से backed है: (1) India structural inflation higher। (2) Trade deficit। (3) Higher growth but also higher imports। (4) Currency depreciation to maintain export competitiveness। Position traders primarily fundamental-driven हैं। टेक्निकल एनालिसिस, Federal Reserve (Fed), भारतीय रुपया (INR) भी पढ़ें।