इलियट वेव थ्योरी

Elliott Wave Theory का core

Ralph Nelson Elliott ने 1930s में Great Depression के दौरान observe किया कि markets random नहीं हैं - वे predictable patterns follow करते हैं investor psychology के through। Core idea: market moves 5-wave "impulse" sequences में होते हैं (trend direction) followed by 3-wave "corrective" sequences (counter-trend)। Total cycle: 8 waves। यह pattern fractal है - हर wave khुद कम्पेरिसनली smaller 5-3 sequences में divide होती है। Larger timeframes पर larger waves, smaller timeframes पर similar structures।

5 Impulse Waves और 3 Correction Waves

Impulse waves (uptrend example): Wave 1 - initial advance। Wave 2 - pullback (cannot retrace more than Wave 1 start)। Wave 3 - strongest wave, longest typically (retail trader FOMO buying)। Wave 4 - profit taking pullback (cannot overlap Wave 1)। Wave 5 - final push, often weaker than Wave 3 (last of retail buyers)। फिर correction: Wave A - initial decline, Wave B - counter-rally, Wave C - final drop। Fibonacci ratios heavily used: Wave 2 = 50-62% retrace of Wave 1, Wave 3 = 1.618x of Wave 1, etc।

Elliott Wave Pros और Cons

Pros: (1) Comprehensive framework - explains all market phases। (2) Predictive - future wave targets possible। (3) Fibonacci integration। (4) Fractal nature fits markets। (5) Long history of use। Cons: (1) Highly subjective - "wave count" debatable। (2) Complex - years of study needed। (3) Hindsight bias - patterns easy to see backwards, hard forward। (4) Academic research mixed on predictive power। (5) "Alternate counts" अक्सर multiple wave interpretations valid होती हैं। Elliott Wave controversial है - कुछ traders sworn believers हैं, कुछ dismiss करते हैं। USD/INR पर weekly/monthly charts Elliott wave structure visible है - lenghty bull cycles। फिबोनाची रिट्रेसमेंट, डाउ थ्योरी, wyckoff-method भी पढ़ें।