इंटरमार्केट एनालिसिस

Intermarket Analysis का Philosophy

John Murphy ने intermarket analysis को popularize किया अपनी famous book "Intermarket Analysis" (2004) में। Core idea: financial markets isolated नहीं हैं - stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies सब interconnected हैं। एक market का move दूसरों पर effect डालता है। Classic relationships: (1) Stocks-bonds typically inverse correlated (risk-on/risk-off)। (2) USD-commodities typically inverse (USD strong = commodities weak)। (3) Bond yields = stocks in certain environments। (4) Gold = inflation hedge। (5) Copper = growth proxy।

Key Intermarket Relationships

Important correlations: (1) USD Index (DXY) vs Gold - strong inverse। (2) USD vs Oil - historical inverse (USD denominated), but weakening recently। (3) Bonds vs Stocks - traditional inverse, but 2022-23 में positive correlation (both down)। (4) Risk-on currencies (AUD, NZD) vs risk-off (USD, JPY, CHF)। (5) Copper vs Gold = economic growth proxy। (6) High-yield bonds vs Treasuries = credit stress indicator। (7) Emerging market currencies vs USD Index। (8) Oil vs commodity currencies (CAD, NOK)।

Intermarket Trading Applications

How traders use: (1) Confirmation - US stocks strong + USD weak = EM rally likely। (2) Divergence warnings - stocks up but bonds up too = uncertainty। (3) Forex signals from other markets - oil price dictating CAD। (4) Macro themes - Fed hike expectations coordinated across markets। (5) Risk management - cross-asset hedging। Limitations: (1) Correlations break down periodically। (2) Regime changes - 2022 में traditional stock-bond correlation broke। (3) Complexity - many variables। भारतीय traders USD/INR के लिए oil, FPI flows, Fed policy, Indian equity market, gold सब track करते हैं। Intermarket awareness critical है। करेंसी कोरिलेशन (Correlation), सेफ हेवन, रिस्क-ऑन भी पढ़ें।